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Italy Retail Report Q3 2015


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Italy Retail Report Q3 2015

BMI View: Italy will emerge from a three-year recession in 2015, boosted by European Central Bankquantitative easing, improving credit conditions, a weaker euro and the boost to disposable incomes fromcheaper oil. We forecast real GDP growth of 0.5% in 2015 and 1.0% in 2016. Nevertheless, medium-tolongterm growth potential remains extremely subdued, which will continue to weigh on household spendingon the wider retail sector, as many opt to save rather than spend. However, an improving employmentmarket, wage growth and loosening of lending will all boost spending over 2015 and beyond.

With one of the highest household savings rates in Europe prior to the crisis and among the lowest privatedebt burdens, private consumption has not been a strong driver of GDP growth in the past decade. However,as the economy strengthens, household spending on retail items is improving. The increase in retail sales inFebruary represents the third consecutive month of growth according to the national statistics office and,although February's 0.1% growth was substantially lower than January's 1.2% rise, this is still a positivesign after months of month-on-month and year-on-year declines. We expect this growth trend to continueover the course of 2015, as the economy stabilises and wages start to increase, boosting consumerconfidence and augmenting household disposable income levels.


BMI Industry View
SWOT
Political
Economic
Industry Forecast
Headline Retail Forecast
Table: Total Household Spending (Italy 2012-2019)
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (Italy 2012-2019)
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (Italy 2012-2019)
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Italy 2012-2019)
Retail Sector Forecast
Food, Drink and Tobacco Spending
Table: Food, Drink & Tobacco Spending (Italy 2012-2019)
Clothing and Footwear Spending
Table: Clothing & Footwear Spending (Italy 2012-2019)
Household Goods Spending
Table: Household Goods Spending (Italy 2012-2019)
Table: Consumer Electronics Spending (Italy 2012-2019)
Personal Care Spending
Table: Personal Care Spending (Italy 2012-2019)
Household Numbers and Income Forecast
Table: Household Income Data (Italy 2012-2019)
Demographic Forecast
Table: Total Population (Italy 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Babies (Italy 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Young Children (Italy 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Children (Italy 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (Italy 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Young People (Italy 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (Italy 2012-2019)
Table: Population: 21yrs + (Italy 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Young Adults (Italy 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Middle Aged (Italy 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Urban (Italy 2012-2019)
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Economic Analysis
Table: Economic Activity (Italy 2010-2019)
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Developed States Risk/Reward Index
Table: Developed States - Retail Risk/Reward Index
Italy Risk/Reward Index
Rewards
Risks
Market Overview
Competitive Landscape
Glossary
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sources
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

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