The Italian petrochemicals industry saw strong growth in 9M17, assisted by an improving market situation
and a low base from the previous year. This was driven by primary plastic output, which grew by 5.3% y-oy
and rubber products by 8.6%, while plastic products just 0.6%. With oil prices unlikely to breach USD70/
bbl over the medium term, we expect cracker capacity to remain stable and competitive with the Porto
Maghera cracker now unlikely to be closed over the forecast period to 2022. The key risk will be refinery
capacity utilisation with any cut in output likely to impact on naphtha availability.