BMI View: We have made a number of minor forecast adjustments but the Italian agribusiness marketcontinues to perform in line with BMI forecasts. We forecast that cheese, milk, poultry and pork productionwill record stable growth over the period to 2021. The removal of EU milk quotas in 2015 and theopportunity for Italy to develop its value-added exports will be positive. We remain cautious of the 2017/18grains yield after steady growth last year and will update further as necessary. We note that ongoing tradesanctions on Russia continue to constrain export-oriented growth, but the EU will look to develop newmarkets in Japan and Canada.
Pork production will reach an estimated 1.58mn tonnes in 2017, representing an increase of 1.2% on2016 levels.
Liquid milk consumption will reach 2.4mn tonnes in 2017, growing 4.0% from the previous year.
Poultry production will remain strong at around 1.372mn tonnes, growing by an estimated 0.4% y-o-y in2017.