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Israel Retail Report Q1 2016

Israel Retail Report Q1 2016

BMI View: Israel's retailers will benefit from growing household incomes in the next four years, which willstimulate all retail sub-sectors, mostly housing and education. Meanwhile, groceries and non-essentialsspending will grow slower than the overall retail sector. Security risks will harm sales early in the forecastperiod as consumers begin avoiding unnecessary shopping, however, we expect the situation to stabilizeand improve in the medium term.

We are currently forecasting real GDP growth of 2.6% over 2015, down from 2.8% recorded during 2014and this will accelerate to 3.4% in 2016. While we forecast the economic growth to remain stable, pressureon the currency is key and this will result in a projected drop in spending (in USD terms) from USD125bnto USD122bn in the retail sector most of which can be attributed to currency fluctuation rather than adecline in demand. However, we do expect a swift recovery of household incomes and spending, both inshekel and dollar terms over forecast period. Net household income is estimated to grow by 6.4% annuallyon average throughout the forecast period, which will shift some household spending patterns.


BMI Industry View
SWOT
Retail SWOT
Political
Economic
Industry Forecast
Headline Retail Forecast
Table: Total Household Spending (Israel 2012-2019)
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (Israel 2012-2019)
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Israel 2012-2019)
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (Israel 2012-2019)
Retail Sector Forecast
Food, Drink & Tobacco
Table: Food, Drink & Tobacco Spending (Israel 2012-2019)
Clothing & Footwear
Table: Clothing & Footwear Spending (Israel 2012-2019)
Household Goods
Table: Household Goods Spending (Israel 2012-2019)
Personal Care
Table: Personal Care Spending (Israel 2012-2019)
Household Numbers And Income Forecast
Table: Household Income Data (Israel 2012-2019)
Table: Labour Market Data (Israel 2012-2019)
Demographic Forecast
Table: Total Population (Israel 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Babies (Israel 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Young Children (Israel 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Children (Israel 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (Israel 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Young People (Israel 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (Israel 2012-2019)
Table: Population: 21yrs + (Israel 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Young Adults (Israel 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Middle Aged (Israel 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Urban (Israel 2012-2019)
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Israel - Private Consumption And Exports To Drive Growth Acceleration
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
Table: Private Consumption Forecasts
Table: Government Consumption Forecasts
Table: Fixed Investment Forecasts
Table: Net Exports Forecast
Industry Risk Reward Index
Middle East And North Africa Risk/Reward Index
Table: Middle East And North Africa Retail Risk/Reward Index, Q116
Israel Risk/Reward Index
Rewards
Risks
Market Overview
Competitive Landscape
Department Stores
Mass Grocery Retail
Fashion
Consumer Electronics
Glossary
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sources
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

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