Israel Power Q4 2018
We once again leave our forecasts unchanged this quarter, although Israel has moved up one place in our risk ratingindex, from third to second regionally. While growth in capacity and generation will be modest over the forecast period, Israel'sposition is boosted by superior outlooks for Country Risk and risks within the power sector. After an estimated 0.9% rise ingeneration to 70.6TWh in 2017, we predict that generation will increase by 1.1% in 2018 before the pace of increase falls backbelow 1.0% annually for the rest of the forecast period, with average growth of 0.6% per annum across the full 10-year time-frameto 2027. Coal currently edges natural gas as the biggest single contributor of power to the country’s grid, but we expect natural gasto edge past coal as the primary form of generation in 2024, although coal will persist as a crucial element of the power mix throughto 2027 and beyond. We remain cautious about the development of renewable energy, with the Israel Electric Company sceptical ofits efficiency.
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