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Israel Country Risk Report Q4 2018

Israel Country Risk Report Q4 2018

Key View:

Conflict over the military drafting of religious students will generate mounting tensions between Prime Minister Netanyahu and his ultra-orthodox coalition partners. While we expect the coalition to reach a compromise, these tensions will weigh on policymaking over the quarters ahead. The conscription fight also highlights long-term economic risks stemming from the poor economic integration of the Haredi community.

Real GDP growth will accelerate modestly in Israel in 2018, continuing to outperform most developed markets. Strong domestic demand, underpinned by favourable labour market dynamics and accommodative policies, will support fixed investment. External dynamics will remain a drag on headline growth in the near term. Over the longer term, however, rising gas production will substantially boost exports.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Robust Domestic Demand To Support Israeli Growth
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
External Trade And Investment Outlook
Israel C/A Surplus To Bottom In 2018 On Weak Terms Of Trade
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
TABLE: BREAKDOWN OF IMPORTS IN 2017
TABLE: BREAKDOWN OF EXPORTS IN 2017
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
Monetary Policy Framework
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
Uptick In Spending Will Not Pose A Threat To Israel Fiscal Stability
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
TABLE: BREAKDOWN OF PUBLIC REVENUES AND EXPENDITURE, % OF TOTAL
Currency Forecast
ILS: Return To Appreciation Ahead
TABLE: FITCH SOLUTIONS CURRENCY FORECAST
Israel Country Risk Q4 2018Contents10-Year Forecast
The Israeli Economy To 2027
Robust Growth Prospects As Investment Picks Up
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Military Draft Law To Heighten Tensions In Israel Ruling Coalition
Long-Term Political Outlook
Rising Internal Polarisation; External Security Risks Here To Stay
Global Macro Outlook
Strong Growth, But Greater Headwinds Too
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: ISRAEL – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS

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