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Israel Country Risk Report Q3 2018

Israel Country Risk Report Q3 2018

The renewed violence in Gaza highlights the elevated tensions be-tween Israelis and Palestinians and heightens risks of an escalated conflict. Additionally, the hard-line policies of the Israeli and US gov-ernments further reduce the chances of a successful US-brokered peace deal, and interferes with the ongoing thawing of Arab-Israeli relations.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Index
Economic Growth Outlook
Modest Growth Acceleration In 2018
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
TABLE: BREAKDOWN OF IMPORTS IN 2016
TABLE: BREAKDOWN OF EXPORTS IN 2016
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
Monetary Policy
Interest Rates To Remain Steady Throughout 2018
Monetary Policy Framework
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
Elections To Drive Spending Higher
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
TABLE: BREAKDOWN OF PUBLIC REVENUES AND EXPENDITURE, % OF TOTAL
Currency Forecast
ILS: Modest Depreciation Ahead
TABLE: BMI CURRENCY FORECAST
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
The Israeli Economy To 2027
Robust Growth Prospects As Investment Picks Up
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Index
Domestic Politics
Gaza Border Clashes Underscore Escalation Risks, Dim Peace Prospects
Long-Term Political Outlook
Rising Internal Polarisation; External Security Risks Here To Stay
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
Operational Risk
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
Business Crime
TABLE: BUSINESS RESPONSE TO BUSINESS CRIME
Education
TABLE: ISRAEL AND OECD AVERAGE – STUDENT PERFORMANCE SCORES
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
Key Divergences Emerging In World Economy
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: ISRAEL – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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