Ireland Country Risk Report Q1 2020

Ireland Country Risk Report Q1 2020

Economic activity in Ireland will cool over the coming years, but remain above eurozone averages.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Prolonged Brexit Uncertainty To Weigh On Inflated Irish Growth
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECAST
TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
TABLE: TOP FIVE GOOD EXPORTS IN 2018
TABLE: TOP FIVE GOOD IMPORTS IN 2018
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
Monetary Policy
Eurozone's Monetary Policy More Accommodative For Longer
Currency Forecast
EUR: Retreating On Dollar Strength
TABLE: EUROZONE CURRENCY FORECAST
10-Year Forecast
The Irish Economy To 2028
Outperformance Over The Eurozone To Persist
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings’ Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings’ analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.ContentsPolitical Outlook
Domestic Politics
Looming Risk Of No-Deal Brexit Remains A Headache For Irish Government
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Long-Term Political Outlook
Political Challenges Beyond The Recession
Global Macro Outlook
Downside Revisions To Stabilise Somewhat, But Policy Risks Remain
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2018-2023)
TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: IRELAND – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS

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