Iraq Telecommunications Report Q4 2017
BMI View: We have not made major forecast revisions in the latest Q417 quarterly report update. The Iraqi telecommunications market continues to perform in accordance with our forecast. The market contracted by over 10% in 2015, largely due to the Islamic State activity in the country. The market posted further losses in Q116 before returning to growth in Q2 and H2 of 2016, and in Q217. We expect the mobile market to continue growing as we expect violence in the country to decrease and stability levels to increase. However, ongoing conflict in certain areas and any potential unrest resulting from the Kurdish independence referendum on 25th September 2017 present a downside risk. Regardless of challenges to the mobile market, we remain of the opinion that the long-term outlook of the market remains positive with growth potential emanating from 3G uptake. The Iraqi government's efforts to auction a fourth mobile operating licence in Q416 yielded poor results as no major investors have been interested so far: high security risks and a poor operating environment are the likely factors discouraging new telecoms sector investment.
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