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Iraq Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

Iraq Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

BMI View: Powerful oil production growth realised in 2015 will come to an abrupt slowdown over thecoming years as lower oil prices subdue the governments' ability to reimburse development costs. Naturalgas imports from Iran from 2016 will play a significant role in meeting pent up demand from the powersector, while exports are set from the KRG to Turkey in 2019.

We highlight the following trends and developments in Iraq's oil and gas sector:

Oil production, including output from the region of Kurdistan, reached 3.905mn b/d in 2015.

Oil exports averaged 3.311mnb/d in 2015.

Major full field development programmes at Majnoon and the West Qurna fields remain on hold. TheHalfaya expansion remains dependent on CNPC accepting deferred payment.

This is due to the government's limited ability to pay for development costs with increased military andhumanitarian expenditure in a lower oil price environment.

The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) has switched oil remuneration from monthly payments toPSCs, creating a more consistent income stream for international oil companies.

Genel Energy and the KRG are finalising a gas production sharing contract (PSC) for the Miran andBina Bawi fields. A final investment decision is expected in H216 with first exports to Turkey by 2019.

We forecast Iraq to be a net importer of natural gas from 2016-2018, with exports to Diyala and Baghdaddue to begin from Iran.

We see upside risk to Iraqi gas consumption from 2017 if the latest 20-35mn cubic metres per day gasimport deal from Iran to Basra is realised.

The Beiji refinery has been removed from our forecast due to damage and looting making it inoperable.We have revised down the expected recovery in refined fuels production as a result.


BMI Industry View
Table: Headline Forecasts (Iraq 2014
2020)
SWOT
Oil & Gas SWOT
Industry Forecast
Upstream Exploration
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Kurdistan Blocks And Operator
Upstream Projects
Table: Iraq
Major Upstream Projects
Upstream Production Oil
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Basra Split Boosts Output
Table: Oil Production (Iraq 2014
2019)
Table: Oil Production (Iraq 2020
2025)
Upstream Production Gas
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Gas Production (Iraq 2014
2019)
Table: Gas Production (Iraq 2020
2025)
Refining
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Iraq 2014
2019)
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Iraq 2020
2025)
Refined Fuels Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Iraq 2014
2019)
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Iraq 2020
2025)
Gas Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Gas Consumption (Iraq 2014
2019)
Table: Gas Consumption (Iraq 2020
2025)
Trade Oil
Latest Updates
Crude Trade Outlook
Structural Trends
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Iraq 2014
2019)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Iraq 2020
2025)
Refined Fuels Trade Outlook
Structural Trends
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Iraq 2014
2019)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Iraq 2020
2025)
Trade Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Gas Net Exports (Iraq 2014
2019)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Iraq 2020
2025)
Industry Risk Reward Index
Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Table: Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Upstream: Index Resilient In Lower Price Environment
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Downstream: Limited Opportunities
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Iraq Risk/Reward Index
Market Overview
Iraq Energy Market Overview
Regulatory Structure
Fiscal Regime
Table: Federal Government Technical Service Agreements
Table: KRG Production Sharing Agreements
Licensing Regime
Licensing Rounds
Table: Fields Licensed Under First Bidding Round (June 2009)
Table: Fields Licensed Under Second Bidding Round (December 2009)
Table: Fields Licensed Under Third Bidding Round (October 2010)
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Table: Iraqi Refineries
Table: Planned Refineries In Iraq
Oil Terminals/Ports
Oil Pipelines
Table: Major Iraqi Pipelines
Gas Pipelines
Competitive Landscape
Competitive Landscape Summary
Company Profiles
Other Summaries
Regional Overview
Middle East Oil And Gas Regional Overview
Oil Production: Weak Prices Have Limited Impact On Growth
Oil Consumption: Gradual Subsidy Reform To Temper Demand Growth
Refining Capacity: 2mn b/d Of New Capacity By 2020
Gas Production: Low Oil Prices Hinder Gas Progress
Gas Consumption: Switch To Gas Power Will Boost Demand
Table: Middle East
Oil And Gas Production, Refining Capacity And Trade (20132024)
Glossary
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Source
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Weighting

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