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Iraq Autos Report Q2 2016

Iraq Autos Report Q2 2016

BMI View: Low base effects will be the key driver of total vehicle sales in Iraq as the ongoing securityinstability continues to dampen private consumption levels resulting in a 2.4% increase in total sales in2016.

Key Views

We expect a return to positive sales growth in 2016, although this will be a relatively small increase of2.4%.

It will be 2017 before we see any meaningful acceleration of growth to 5.2%, by which time our CountryRisk team forecasts private final consumption growth to be back at 3.0%.

The companies that are best placed to weather the storm are Iranian carmakers, such as IKCO andSAIPA, which have the benefit of close proximity to the market without border issues.

BMI Industry View
Key Views
Industry Forecast
Table: Autos Total Market
Historical Data And Forecasts (Iraq 20142020)
Latest Developments
Table: Latest Developments
Structural Trends
Iranian Advantage
Security Instability Siphoning Potential For Commercial Vehicles
Industry Risk/Reward Index
GCC Stability Offsets Sales Downgrades
LongTerm Potential Comes With Risk
Iran The Most Attractive Outlier
Company Profile
GB Auto
State Company For Auto Industry
ZamZam Spring Group
Regional Overview
Table: Middle East And North African Autos Production Investments
Iran Already Drawing A Crowd...
North African Hub Expanding
Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Iraq 1990
Table: Key Population Ratios (Iraq 1990
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Iraq 1990
Table: Population By Age Group (Iraq 1990
Table: Population By Age Group % (Iraq 1990
Industry Forecasts
SectorSpecific Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Index Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators

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