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Iran Telecommunications Report Q4 2015

Iran Telecommunications Report Q4 2015

BMI View: Iran's telecoms market is an underperformer in the Middle East as a result of political andeconomic risks, exacerbated by currency depreciation. Access to the latest devices is limited. The UNSecurity Council's unanimous vote in July 2015 to lift the sanctions against Iran, following a deal on Iran'snuclear programme, however, warrants an optimistic outlook. BMI's Country Risk team has made a slightupward revision to our economic growth forecast for Iran, projecting real GDP growth to pick up from 0.6%in 2015, to 2.9% in 2016 and 3.6% in 2017. This is also likely to have a positive effect on the mobile marketand potentially attract more foreign investment. Although mobile penetration in Iran is relatively high at136.1%, BMI believes that there is further scope for growth. Data services, in particular, will grow at anaverage rate of 36.2% CAGR over the next five years. Iran's second biggest mobile operator MTN Irancellhas launched 3G and 4G services and market leader MIC is planning to do so in the very near future.

Key Data

We estimate that fixed-line connections increased by 3.0% in 2014 and we expect growth to slow downin the forecast period because of fixed-mobile substitution and a greater focus on mobile services fromfixed incumbent TCI.


BMI Industry View
Table: Broadband - Historical Data & Forecasts (Iran 2012-2019)
SWOT
Political
Economic
Operational Risk
Industry Forecast
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Iran 2012-2019)
Mobile
Wireline
Broadband
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Table: MENA Telecoms Risk/Reward Index - Q415
Market Overview
Mobile
Mobile Market
Broadband
Pay-TV
Fixed-Line
Wireline
Fixed-Line
Broadband
Pay-TV
Regulatory Development
Table: Iran's Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
Regulatory Developments
Company Profile
Telecommunications Company Of Iran (TCI)
MTN Irancell
Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Iran 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Iran 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population And Life Expectancy (Iran 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Iran 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Iran 1990-2025)
Glossary
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sources
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

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