BMI View: We have made modest forecast adjustments in this quarterly update but our core views remain unchanged in the Q417 update. In the mobile market, we maintain the view that MVNOs will be key in unlocking long-term subscriptions growth. The mobile market is saturated, with penetration rates inching past the 150% barrier. Therefore there is a high possibility of the regulator initiating a SIM discounting campaign, leading to slow or negative growth in the coming quarters. That said, we expect 3G/4G to continue being a significant growth driver in the overall mobile market. In the wireline market, our view for the fixed voice segment has not drastically changed, although we expect mobile substitution to slow down subscription growth. Despite that, TCI's investments into rural areas and its offer of converged services will continue to keep subscription growth in the positive.
Latest Updates And Industry Developments
The mobile market ended Q117 with a total of 128.42mn subscribers, a figure we see rising to 130.79mn by YE17 and exceeding 135.58mn by 2021. We note that organic growth opportunities will be extremely elusive and a number of inactive SIMs may be present in the market that have not yet been discounted. Official data revealed there were 73mn inactive mobile subscriptions as of Q316. In the coming quarters, we expect the regulator to initiate a SIM discounting campaign.