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Iran Telecommunications Report Q4 2017

Iran Telecommunications Report Q4 2017

BMI View: We have made modest forecast adjustments in this quarterly update but our core views remain unchanged in the Q417 update. In the mobile market, we maintain the view that MVNOs will be key in unlocking long-term subscriptions growth. The mobile market is saturated, with penetration rates inching past the 150% barrier. Therefore there is a high possibility of the regulator initiating a SIM discounting campaign, leading to slow or negative growth in the coming quarters. That said, we expect 3G/4G to continue being a significant growth driver in the overall mobile market. In the wireline market, our view for the fixed voice segment has not drastically changed, although we expect mobile substitution to slow down subscription growth. Despite that, TCI's investments into rural areas and its offer of converged services will continue to keep subscription growth in the positive.

Latest Updates And Industry Developments

The mobile market ended Q117 with a total of 128.42mn subscribers, a figure we see rising to 130.79mn by YE17 and exceeding 135.58mn by 2021. We note that organic growth opportunities will be extremely elusive and a number of inactive SIMs may be present in the market that have not yet been discounted. Official data revealed there were 73mn inactive mobile subscriptions as of Q316. In the coming quarters, we expect the regulator to initiate a SIM discounting campaign.


BMI Industry View
SWOT
Telecoms
Industry Forecast
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Iran 2014-2021)
Industry Risk/Reward Index
Middle East And North Africa Risk/Reward Index
Table: MENA Telecoms Risk/Reward Index, Q417
Iran Industry Risk/Reward Index
Market Overview
Market Drivers And Trends
Mobile
Wireline Voice And Broadband
Pay-TV/Convergence
Regulatory Development
Regulatory Overview
Industry Risks
Main Development: Telecoms Sector Reform
Additional Developments
Competitive Landscape
Market Structure
Table: Key Players: Iranian Telecoms Market
Table: Mobile Market Overview
Table: MTN Irancell
Table: Hamrahe Aval (MCI)
Company Profile
MTN Irancell
Telecommunications Company Of Iran (TCI)
Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Iran 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Iran 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Iran 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Iran 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Iran 1990-2025)
Glossary
Table: Glossary of Terms
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sources
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

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