Iran Shipping Report Q1 2016
BMI View: The historic deal agreed between Iran and the P5+1 powers in Vienna on July 14 - assuming itpasses through parliaments - will see growth return to the Iranian economy and its shipping sector over thecoming years. This recovery will not be immediate and there remain significant challenges to growth in thenear term. The general trend is that Brent crude will average considerably less than in recent years - weforecast an average of USD59 per barrel in 2015 - meaning that the economic boost from easing sanctionswill be limited. Iranian consumers will continue to be under pressure, and a massive ramp up incontainerised goods imports is unlikely. However, as real GDP growth in the country picks up, we expectpent-up demand from the growing middle class in the Middle East's largest population to drive growth inimports of containerised consumer goods.
Headline Industry Data
2016 port of Bandar Abbas throughput forecast to grow by 6.3%, and average growth of 7.3% to 2020.
2020 port of Bandar Abbas throughput expected to reach 2.4mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) -although this is still insufficient to match 2011 volumes.
2016 total real trade is forecast to grow by 1.5%.
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