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Iran Shipping Report Q1 2016

Iran Shipping Report Q1 2016

BMI View: The historic deal agreed between Iran and the P5+1 powers in Vienna on July 14 - assuming itpasses through parliaments - will see growth return to the Iranian economy and its shipping sector over thecoming years. This recovery will not be immediate and there remain significant challenges to growth in thenear term. The general trend is that Brent crude will average considerably less than in recent years - weforecast an average of USD59 per barrel in 2015 - meaning that the economic boost from easing sanctionswill be limited. Iranian consumers will continue to be under pressure, and a massive ramp up incontainerised goods imports is unlikely. However, as real GDP growth in the country picks up, we expectpent-up demand from the growing middle class in the Middle East's largest population to drive growth inimports of containerised consumer goods.

Headline Industry Data

2016 port of Bandar Abbas throughput forecast to grow by 6.3%, and average growth of 7.3% to 2020.

2020 port of Bandar Abbas throughput expected to reach 2.4mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) -although this is still insufficient to match 2011 volumes.

2016 total real trade is forecast to grow by 1.5%.

BMI Industry View
Operational Risk
Industry Forecast
Port Of Bandar Abbas Throughput
Table: Major Ports Data (Iran 2012-2019)
Table: Trade Overview (Iran 2012-2019)
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Iran 2012-2019)
Table: Main Import Partners, 2006-2013
Table: Main Export Destinations, 2006-2013
Market Overview
Iran Container Shipping Market Overview
Company Profile
Islamic Republic Of Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL)
Shipping - Global Industry View
Bright Spot For Shipping: Low Bunker Prices
Table: BMI Bunker Fuel (IFO180 & MGO) Price Forecast
Short-Term Outlook (three-to-six months)
Long-Term Outlook
Risks To Outlook
Global Company Strategy
Maersk Line
Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)
Evergreen Line
COSCO Container Lines Company (COSCON)
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Economy To Grow Again On Sanctions Relief
Table: Economic Activity (Iran 2010-2019)
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Iran 2012-2019)
Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Iran 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Iran 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Iran 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Iran 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Iran 1990-2025)

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