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Iran Power Report Q4 2017

Iran Power Report Q4 2017

BMI View: The successful re-election of reformist President Hassan Rouhani - in line with our CountryRisk team's core scenario - removes one potential banana skin for development and a continued modestopening up of Iran's power sector to external investment. Importantly, the nuclear deal retains the strongbacking of key European leaders, notably German chancellor Angela Merkel, France's new PresidentEmmanuel Macron, Russia's President Vladimir Putin and China's President Xi Jinping. It also appears tohave the support of US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, Secretary of Defense James Mattis and NationalSecurity Adviser HR McMaster, who are in a position to moderate President Donald Trump's hawkishexcesses. In this context, our Country Risk team calculated in August 2017 there is a 65% chance the JointComprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) will hold and a 35% chance it will implode. For now, we continueto forecast power generation will rise by an average of 3.6% per year over the next decade, but there arestrong upside and downside risks to this scenario, depending on how the internal and bilateral politicalsituations play out.


BMI Industry View
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Iran 2016-2022)
SWOT
Industry Forecast
Iran Snapshot
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Iran 2016-2020)
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Iran 2021-2026)
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
Iran Power Forecast Scenario
Thermal Generation & Capacity Forecasts
Nuclear Generation & Capacity Forecasts
Hydropower And Non-Hydropower Generation And Capacity Forecasts
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Iran 2015-2020)
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Iran 2021-2026)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Iran 2015-2020)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Iran 2021-2026)
Electricity Consumption
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Iran 2015-2020)
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Iran 2021-2026)
Transmission And Distribution, Imports And Exports
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Iran 2015-2020)
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Iran 2021-2026)
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Iran 2015-2020)
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Iran 2021-2026)
Industry Risk/Reward Index
MENA Industry Risk/Reward Index
Industry Risk/Reward Index
Market Overview
Key Policies And Market Structure
Regulation And Competition
Pricing
Iran Power Projects Database
Table: Iran - Key Power Projects Database
Competitive Landscape
Regional Overview
Glossary
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Methodology
Methodology And Sources
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sources
Power Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Indicators - Explanation and Sources

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