Iran Oil and Gas Report Q1 2016

Iran Oil and Gas Report Q1 2016

BMI View: Regardless of the expected removal of sanctions, gas production and consumption will see asubstantial ramp-up in 2016. The lifting of sanctions in early 2016 will allow for around 600,000b/d of newoil exports by the end of 2016. New refining capacity will eradicate net fuels imports from 2016.

We highlight the following trends and developments in Iran's oil and gas sector:

We expect sanctions on the energy sector to be lifted near the end of Q116.

As a result, crude oil production and exports will increase around 600,000b/d by the end of 2016.

We have revised up our gas production forecast for 2016 given the expected start up of South Pars phase15 & 16 in November.

Greater availability of gas will boost domestic consumption and reduce gas imports over the winter.

The first 120,000b/d phase of the Persian Gulf Star refinery is expected to become operation in H116.

The final two phases are forecast to become operational by the end of 2017.

BMI Industry View
Table: Headline Forecasts (Iran 2013-2019)
OIl & Gas SWOT
Industry Forecast
Upstream Exploration
Upstream Projects
Table: New Projects Expected To Be Offered Post-Sanctions
Table: Iran Major Upstream Projects
Upstream Production - Oil
Oil Production Gains In The First Two Years Post Sanctions
Table: New Oil Projects On Offer
Table: Oil Production (Iran 2013-2018)
Table: Oil Production (Iran 2019-2024)
Upstream Production - Gas
Table: South Pars Project Phases
Table: Gas Projects Proposed Post Sanctions
Table: Gas Production (Iran 2013-2018)
Table: Gas Production (Iran 2019-2024)
Table: Major Iranian Refineries
Table: Proposed Greenfield Refineries
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Iran 2013-2018)
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Iran 2019-2024)
Refined Fuels Consumption
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Iran 2013-2018)
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Iran 2019-2024)
Gas Consumption
Table: Gas Consumption (Iran 2013-2018)
Table: Gas Consumption (Iran 2019-2024)
Trade - Oil
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Iran 2013-2019)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Iran 2019-2024)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Iran 2013-2018)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Iran 2019-2024)
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Iran 2013-2018)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Iran 2019-2024)
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Table: BMI's Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index (RRI)
Index Resilient In Lower Price Environment
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Limited Opportunities Downstream
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Iran - Risk/Reward Index
Iran - Overview
Iran Upstream Index - Rewards
Iran Upstream Index - Risks
Iran Downstream Index - Overview
Market Overview
Iran Energy Market Overview
Overview/State Role
Table: Key Upstream Operators - Iran Oil & Gas Sector
Table: Key Downstream Operators - Iran Energy Sector
Licensing And Regulation
Country Risk View: Iranian Nuclear Deal - Widespread Economic And Geopolitical Implications
Table: Main Terms Of Iran Nuclear Deal
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Table: Refineries In Iran
Service Stations
Oil Storage Facilities
Oil Terminals/Ports
Oil Pipelines
Gas Pipelines
Table: Major Proposed Pipelines
Competitive Landscape
Competitive Landscape Summary
Table: Key Players - Iranian Oil & Gas Sector
Company Profile
China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC)
National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC)
National Iranian Oil Refining & Distribution Company (NIORDC)
ONGC Videsh (OVL)
Other Summaries
Regional Overview
Middle East Oil & Gas Regional Overview
Oil Production: Expansion Projects March On
Oil Consumption: Subsidies Hide Weaker Price Impact, But Push Demand Growth
Refining Capacity: Mega Refineries Outcompete In Oversupplied Market
Gas Production: In Needed Of More Gas
Gas Consumption: Switch To Gas Power Will Boost Demand
Table: Middle East Oil & Gas Production, Refining Capacity & Trade
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Weighting

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