BMI View: Iran will remain an attractive medical device market in the region due to its large size, but itwill register moderate growth in US dollar terms, due to the depreciation of the rial. Following the removalof most sanctions in Q116, imports will rise but performance will likely be tempered by lower oil prices andthe country's lack of investment over the past decade.
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We maintain our forecast that the market will register a 2015-2020 CAGR of 12.5% in local currencyterms, which will take expenditure to IRR48.7trn by 2020. In US dollar terms, the market will register a2015-2020 CAGR of 4.6%, which should see it rise to USD1.2bn by 2020.
We expect the market to remain import reliant, despite manufacturing syringes, needles & catheters,dental instruments & fittings and orthopaedics. The latest collated monthly mirror trade data show thatimports decreased by 1.0% y-o-y in US dollar terms to USD243.4mn in Q316, but rose by 11.9% in USdollar terms to USD952.4mn in the 12 months to September 2016.