Iran Insurance Q4 2019
We have revised down our latest Iran insurance forecast, in the Q419 outlook, owing to a number of structuralchallenges. The macroeconomic environment will be poor with real GDP, private final consumption and spending levels all set tocollapse significantly in 2019 and 2020 as the sanctions extract a heavy toll. Additionally, we note that persistently high levels ofinflation and currency volatility will further erode household purchasing power and enterprise confidence levels. While the marketholds long-term organic growth potential, we do not see it being unlocked as the geopolitical and diplomatic tensions with the UScontinue to isolate the country.
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