Iran Freight Transport and Shipping Report Q2 2016
BMI View: In 2016, we forecast a relatively healthy year of growth across the freight modes in Iran,predicated predominantly on the news that the removal of almost all sanctions on Iran's economy will causea significant uptick in economic growth over the coming years, reaching between 3% and 6. This will alsobenefit both imports and exports as trade links are built and strengthened. We expect Iran's economy toemerge from recession as the country complies with demands on its nuclear programme. Iran has hugepotential across almost all sectors (not just oil and gas which attracts most of the attention), and wehighlight industries related to the consumer - especially autos and food and drink.
Iran's total trade will see real growth of 1.5% in 2016, a scenario that will be driven by exports, whichwill see real growth of 2.0%, while imports will expand more sluggishly at 1.0%, as the Iranian consumerwill take some time to recover from the economic woes of recent years, not least heavy depreciation inthe rial.
The outperforming freight mode in Iran is set to be rail freight over both the short and medium term. Thissector will see y-o-y growth of 2.7% in 2016 and we anticipate it averaging annual growth of 3.0%between 2016 to 2020.
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