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Iran Freight Transport Report Q2 2015

Iran Freight Transport Report Q2 2015

BMI View: The outlook for the Iranian freight transport sector has changed somewhat since our lastquarterly update - at least in the short term. The fall in global oil prices through the end of 2014 has causedus to revisit many of our macroeconomic assumptions for net oil exporters, Iran included, and resulted in adowngrade to many of our previous forecasts. The long-term picture is still fairly positive - Iran has a largeand growing population, and there is considerable investment being made into all freight modes - but thechallenges to short-term growth are salient. Nevertheless, we forecast a positive expansion in volumesthrough rail, air and ports in 2015 and over the medium term.

Headline Industry Data

2015 port of Bandar Abbas throughput is forecast to expand by 6.7%, and to average growth of 6.8% perannum through to 2019.

2015 road freight volume is forecast to expand by 3.6% and to average growth of 4.4% per annumthrough to 2019.

2015 rail freight tonnes-km is forecast to expand by 0.3%, and to average 0.9% growth per annumthrough to 2019.

2015 air freight tonnes-km is forecast to expand by 1.8% and to average 1.9% growth per annum to 2019.

2015 total trade is forecast to experience a real contraction of 0.4%, and average positive growth of 1.3%


BMI Industry View
SWOT
Freight Transport
Political
Economic
Operational Risk
Industry Forecast
Rail Freight
Table: Rail Freight (Iran 2012-2019)
Road Freight
Table: Road Freight (Iran 2012-2019)
Air Freight
Table: Air Freight (Iran 2012-2019)
Maritime
Table: Maritime Freight (Iran 2012-2019)
Trade
Table: Trade Overview (Iran 2012-2019)
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Iran 2012-2019)
Table: Top Import Destinations, 2006-2013
Table: Top Export Destinations, 2006-2013
Market Overview
Company Profile
Iran Air Cargo
Political Outlook
Foreign Policy
Table: Possible Scenarios Over The Next Two Years
Table: MENA - Operational Risk
Long-Term Political Outlook
Challenges And Threats To Stability
Table: Iran Political Overview
Oil Price Outlook
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2013-2018)
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2019-2024)
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Economic Analysis
Table: Economic Activity (Iran 2010-2019)
Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Iran 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Iran 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population And Life Expectancy (Iran 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Iran 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Iran 1990-2025)
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology
Sources

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