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Iran Freight Transport Report Q1 2016

BMI Industry View
SWOT
Freight Transport
Political
Economic
Operational Risk
Industry Forecast
Trade Forecast
Table: Trade Overview (Iran 2012-2019)
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Iran 2012-2019)
Table: Main Import Partners
Table: Main Export Partners
Road Freight Forecast
Table: Road Freight (Iran 2012-2019)
Rail Freight Forecast
Table: Rail Freight (Iran 2012-2019)
Air Freight Forecast
Table: Air Freight (Iran 2012-2019)
Market Overview
Company Profile
Iran Air Cargo
Political Outlook
Table: Main Terms Of Iran Nuclear Deal
Table: Iran Nuclear Deal: Winners And Losers
Long Term Political Outlook
Table: Iran - Political Overview
Oil Price Outlook
Europe - Brent On Board For A Bumpy Ride
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Economy To Grow Again On Sanctions Relief
Table: Economic Activity (Iran 2010-2019)
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Iran 2012-2019)
Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Iran 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Iran 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Iran 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Iran 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Iran 1990-2025)
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology
Sources

Iran Freight Transport Report Q1 2016

BMI View: An agreement was reached between Iran and the P5+1 powers in Vienna in July which shouldsee all sanctions against the Middle Eastern country removed in 2016. This is highly positive news for thefreight transport sector in Iran, in particular the shipping sector and the country's pipelines, as it willresume oil exports in full. With regards the rest of the freight transport mix, growth will be slow initially asthe economy will take some time to recover. Nevertheless, growth will accelerate over the course of ourmedium-term forecast period to 2020, across all freight modes.

We forecast that total Iranian trade will see a return to real growth in 2016, following four consecutive yearsof decline from 2012 to 2015, as the effect of sanctions removal takes hold. The removal of almost allsanctions on Iran's economy - which we expect to occur in H116 - will cause a significant uptick ineconomic growth over the coming years, reaching between 3% and 6%. We expect Iran's economy toemerge from recession as the country complies with demands on its nuclear programme. Iran has hugepotential across almost all sectors, not just oil and gas which attracts most of the attention, and we highlightindustries related to the consumer - especially autos and food and drink.


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