Iran Freight Transport Report Q1 2016
BMI View: An agreement was reached between Iran and the P5+1 powers in Vienna in July which shouldsee all sanctions against the Middle Eastern country removed in 2016. This is highly positive news for thefreight transport sector in Iran, in particular the shipping sector and the country's pipelines, as it willresume oil exports in full. With regards the rest of the freight transport mix, growth will be slow initially asthe economy will take some time to recover. Nevertheless, growth will accelerate over the course of ourmedium-term forecast period to 2020, across all freight modes.
We forecast that total Iranian trade will see a return to real growth in 2016, following four consecutive yearsof decline from 2012 to 2015, as the effect of sanctions removal takes hold. The removal of almost allsanctions on Iran's economy - which we expect to occur in H116 - will cause a significant uptick ineconomic growth over the coming years, reaching between 3% and 6%. We expect Iran's economy toemerge from recession as the country complies with demands on its nuclear programme. Iran has hugepotential across almost all sectors, not just oil and gas which attracts most of the attention, and we highlightindustries related to the consumer - especially autos and food and drink.
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