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Iran Country Risk Report 20 2018

Iran Country Risk Report 20 2018

Political uncertainty and persistent structural issues will keep foreign investment inflows into Iran relatively subdued over the coming quar-ters. Fiscal consolidation, limited availability of credit and still-elevated inflation will weigh on domestic investment and consumption, while OPEC-stipulated oil production cuts cap exports.

Political uncertainty will also continue to weigh on the value of the Iranian rial over the coming months, although depreciatory pres-sures associated with Nowruz and central bank interest rate caps will ease from Q1 levels. Iranian authorities will continue to prioritise the containment of inflation, making the unification of the country's two exchange rates unlikely over the forecast period.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risk
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Index
Economic Growth Outlook
Political Uncertainty To Weigh On Growth
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
Monetary Policy
Modest Uptick In Inflation Ahead
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
Fears Of Fuelling Popular Discontent To Limit Fiscal Consolidation
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: FISCAL POLICY
Currency Forecast
IRR: Political Risk To Fuel Depreciation, Prevent Unification
TABLE: BMI CURRENCY FORECAST
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
The Iranian Economy To 2027
Potential For Regional Outperformance, Though Instability Risks To Persist
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Index
Domestic Politics
Nuclear Deal To Remain In Place For Now
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Long-Term Political Outlook
Hardliners To Maintain Control, But Power Struggle Likely
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
Operational Risk
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
Business Crime
TABLE: BUSINESS RESPONSE TO WHITE COLLAR CRIME AND ORGANISED CRIME
Education
TABLE: GRADE 8 TIMSS STUDENT PERFORMANCE SCORES
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
Trade Tensions Take Centre Stage
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: IRAN – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS

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