Iran Consumer Electronics Report Q2 2016
BMI View: The easing of sanctions and a more supportive economic environment, particularly from 2017,will shift the Iranian consumer electronics devices market to a higher growth trajectory. Rising incomesand increased supply of devices should see domestic spending growth above the historical trend as vendorstap low device penetration rates in key categories such as notebooks, tablets and smartphones. The outlookis however still subject to uncertainty due to political risk and the low oil price. There is also downside dueto high import tariffs for devices, and embedded consumer behaviour in acquiring devices through informalchannels. Balancing these factors is our core scenario for a CAGR of 4.8% 2016-2020 to a value ofUSD10.1bn in 2020.
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Computer sales: USD2.6bn in 2016 to USD3.5bn by 2020, corresponding to a compound annual growthrate (CAGR) of 4.8%. In a market with an installed base weighted towards locally assembled desktopsthere is a huge opportunity in the notebook and tablet markets, which we expect to outperform.
AV and gaming device sales: USD1.5bn in 2016 to USD1.8bn in 2020, a CAGR of 2.3%. TV setupgrade opportunity but AV market expected to underperform due to price erosion and cannibalisation ofdigital camera volumes as base of smartphone ownership broadens.