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Iran Consumer Electronics Report Q1 2016

BMI View: We made revisions for the Iran consumer electronics market in our Q415 report to better reflectthe growth potential and historical data in the market. Following the nuclear deal in July 2015, we havealso revised the potential for future prospects. Under our revised outlook we expect consumer electronicsspending growth to accelerate from 2016 as the easing of sanctions makes a positive contribution throughincreased supply of devices and formalisation of retail, which will drive down prices and catalyse volumegrowth, enabling vendors to tap into positive fundamentals including population and income growth. Wedo, however, continue to stress downside risk and uncertainty surrounding the outlook for Iran, includingpolitical and operational risk and the challenging economic environment.

Headline Expenditure Projections

Computer sales: USD2.8bn in 2014 to USD3.1bn by 2019; Even after easing of sanctions relatively highcost of devices will continue to be a drag on growth, but economic recovery and more competition shouldsee the market move to a higher growth trajectory.

AV and gaming device sales: USD1.6bn in 2014 to USD1.7bn in 2019; Demand is likely to be weakestin this segment as TV market saturation and price erosion and cannibalisation of digital camera volumes,will offset the growth dividend from sanctions being rescinded.

Handset sales: USD3.7bn in 2014 to USD4.7bn in 2019; the handset market is forecast to outperform asan easing of sanctions and formalisation of retail will accelerate growth, particularly in the handsetmarket where under sanctions the premium segment was primarily served by black market goodsacquired overseas.


BMI Industry View
SWOT
Consumer Electronics Market
Industry Forecast
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview (Iran 2013-2019)
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Industry Risk Reward Index
Table: MEA Consumer Electronics Risk/Rewards Index, Q116
Market Overview
Computers
Table: PC Sales (Iran 2013-2019)
AV Devices
Table: AV Sales (Iran 2013-2019)
Mobile Handsets
Table: Mobile Communications (Iran 2013-2019)
Competitive Landscape
International
Table: Hyperstar
Local
Table: Refah Chain Stores Co
Regulatory Development
Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Iran 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Iran 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Iran 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Iran 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Iran 1990-2025)
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology
Sources
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology
Table: Consumer Electronics Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

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