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Indonesia Shipping Report Q2 2015

Indonesia Shipping Report Q2 2015

Indonesian Economy Set To Accelerate in 2015

We are expecting activity at Indonesia's main ports to be positive and broadly comparable to last year, with growth of cargo handled ranging roughly between 3% and 8%. Of particular interest to the bulk shipping sector is the fate of the government's existing ban on the export of unprocessed mineral ores. The Constitutional Court upheld the ban in December, but there have been some signs that the authorities might relax the measure as part of a wider deal with mining companies. Such a move would boost shipping demand significantly. Over the medium- to long-term, we continue to believe that the key to sustainable growth in shipping is investment in port infrastructure, including road and rail links in the hinterland areas.

We are encouraged to see continuing evidence of progress on this front.

BMI is maintaining its forecast for the Indonesian economy to pick up a little speed this year, with GDP growth rising to 5.5% after an estimated 5.1% expansion in 2014. The main drivers for this will be improving terms of trade and fiscal efficiency. Bank Indonesia's tighter monetary policy, commenced in June 2013 as petrol price subsidies were reduced, is still a factor and has taken some steam out of the country's investment boom. However, with its finances improved by the cut in subsidies and the effects of lower international oil prices, the government has 2015 budget savings of around USD18.2bn to play with, and we expect around two thirds of those to be invested in infrastructure development projects, with part of the remaining one third being redistributed as subsidies to low-income households: both things with be growth-positive. One cause for caution, however, is that we have yet to see the new government tackling structural economic reforms, particularly in the important mining sector, where the environment remains unattractive to international companies and investors.


BMI Industry View
SWOT
Shipping
Political
Economic
Operational Risk
Industry Forecast
Port Of Jakarta (Tanjung Priok) Throughput
Table: Major Ports Data (Indonesia 2012-2019)
Table: Trade Overview (Indonesia 2012-2019)
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Indonesia 2012-2019)
Table: Top Import Sources 2006-2013
Table: Top Export Sources 2006-2013
Market Overview
Indonesia Container Shipping Market Overview
Table: Indonesia Container Port Plans
Company Profile
Samudera Shipping Line
Trada Maritime (TRAM)
Shipping - Global Industry View
Container Lines To Prosper In 2015
Global Company Strategy
Maersk Line
Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)
CMA CGM
Evergreen Line
COSCO Container Lines Company (COSCON)
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Economic Analysis
Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Indonesia 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Indonesia 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population And Life Expectancy (Indonesia 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Indonesia 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Indonesia 1990-2025)

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