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Indonesia Mining Report Q1 2016

Indonesia Mining Report Q1 2016

BMI View: Indonesia's mineral production growth will slow on the back of the country's ban on mineralexports and continued mineral price weakness.

Latest Developments & Structural Trends

With the boom years in commodity prices behind us, we believe more miners in Indonesia will be forcedto put the brakes on investment over the coming quarters. In January 2014, the government implementedthe ban on unprocessed minerals, in order to stimulate smelter construction and increase mineral exportvalue.

Contrary to numerous smelter project proposals in 2014 and our past expectations on high smelterinvestment from China, smelter investment for bauxite has been stagnant with just one local smelterowned by Inalum completed in 2014 and all other projects halted to date. This will lead to furtherproduction cuts by bauxite miners in the near term. As such, we have revised down our forecasts as weexpect the majority of new smelter projects will not materialise due to both low bauxite prices and themineral ore export ban staying in place over the coming quarters. We have revised down our averageannual bauxite production growth forecast for Indonesia down from 550% to 40.0%, 58.0% to -4.0% and20.0% to -4.0% for 2015, 2016 and 2017, respectively.

BMI Industry View
Table: Indonesia - Mining Industry Value Forecast (2014-2019)
Latest Developments & Structural Trends
Industry Forecast
Bauxite: Growth To Recover Gradually
Latest Developments
Table: Bauxite Production Forecast (Indonesia 2014-2019)
Structural Trends
Coal: Slow Growth In Years To Come
Latest developments
Table: Coal Production Forecast (Indonesia 2011-2019)
Structural Trends
Production Fall In 2015
Table: Indonesia - Select Coal Projects
Copper: Growth Cooling Down
Latest Developments
Table: Copper Production Forecast (Indonesia 2011-2019)
Structural Developments
Grasberg To Drive Output Growth
Table: Indonesia - Major Copper Projects
Nickel: Production Making A Recovery
Latest Developments
Table: Nickel Production Forecast (Indonesia 2010-2020)
Structural Trends
Ban Moderation Unlikely
Modest Price Growth
Table: Indonesia - Largest Nickel Projects
Smelters Being Built
Tin: Refined Export Control Will Limit Growth
Latest Developments
Table: Tin Production Forecast (Indonesia 2011-2019)
Structural Trends
Failure To Maintain Export Quota
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Indonesia - Risk/Reward Index
Industry Rewards
Country Rewards
Industry Risks
Country Risks
Asia - Risk/Reward Index
Table: Asia - Mining Risk/Reward Index
Regulatory Development
Key Developments
Ban Moderation On The Horizon
Table: Indonesia - Export Restrictions On Select Commodities
The 2009 Mining Law
Trade & Investment Risk Analysis
Commodities Forecast
Commodities Outlook
Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
Key Players
Table: Financial Data For Key Mining Firms Listed In Indonesia
Company Profile
PT Antam
Table: PT Antam - Key Financial Data
PT Bumi Resources
Table: Bumi Resources - Key Financial Data
PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG)
Table: ITMG - Key Financial Data
PT Timah
Table: PT Timah - Key Financial Data
Global Company Strategy - Freeport-McMoRan - Q1 2016
Company Strategy
Latest Results
Financial Data
Table: Freeport-McMoRan - Key Financial Data
Address Details
Regional Overview
Asia Mining: The Four Key Themes
Key Themes
Australia To Dominate Iron Ore Sector
Indian Coal Consumption To Remain Solid
Weak Chinese Demand To Keep Prices Low
Indonesian Ban Moderation Increasingly Likely
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

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