Indonesia Freight Transport & Shipping Report Q2 2016
BMI View: In 2016 the shipping and air freight modes will see the most significant growth in Indonesia, astrade in Asia is set to rebalance after stalling in 2015 and key sectors such as the pharmaceutical marketwill see a boost in growth. In our medium-term forecast to 2020, BMI believes the rail and air freight modeswill see higher growth than road freight transport, as a result of state and external investment in upgradingrail networks and higher growth in key air freight indicators. Road freight will continue to be hampered bypoor road infrastructure and competitiveness.
BMI is optimistic about Indonesia's domestic and trade growth in the coming years. 2016 will mark a returnto positive real trade growth (with both positive import and export growth) of 1.75%, up from an estimated-2.32% in 2015. In addition, we forecast real GDP growth of 5.6% in 2016, which should rise to a levelcomfortably above 6% for the remainder of our medium-term forecast period to 2019, growing at anaverage annual rate of 6.0%. Coupled with robust growth in GDP income per capita - above 10% in themedium-term - and steady real private consumption growth (reaching 5.3% in 2016 and above 6% from2017-2020), we see healthy indicators all round for Indonesia's economic growth.
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