Indonesia Freight Transport Report Q2 2015
Freight Growth In Good Single Digits
Across Indonesia's different freight modes, we are expecting cargo volume growth in a range of 3-8% during 2015. Both GDP and foreign trade expansion will support the freight sector. In the medium to longer term we continue to think that the key to sustainable growth is investment in port infrastructure, including road and rail links in the hinterland areas. The new government wants to push forward on this front.
Capacity problems remain an issue, but new investment projects in ports, airports, road and rail are being launched.
BMI is maintaining its forecast for the Indonesian economy to pick up a little speed this year, with GDP growth rising to 5.5% after an estimated 5.1% expansion in 2014. The main drivers for this will be improving terms of trade and fiscal efficiency. Bank Indonesia's tighter monetary policy, commenced in June 2013 as petrol price subsidies were reduced, is still a factor and has taken some steam out of the country's investment boom. However, with its finances improved by the cut in subsidies and the effects of lower international oil prices, the government has 2015 budget savings of around USD18.2bn to play with and we expect around two thirds of those to be invested in infrastructure development projects, with part of the remaining one third being redistributed as subsidies to low-income households: both things will be growth-positive. One cause for caution, however, is that we have yet to see the new government tackling structural economic reforms, particularly in the important mining sector, where the environment remains unattractive to international companies and investors.
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