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Indonesia Country Risk Report Q4 2018

Indonesia Country Risk Report Q4 2018

Key View:

Indonesia's real GDP growth accelerated to 5.3% y-o-y in Q218, and we maintain our forecast for full-year growth to come in at 5.3% in 2018. The economy is unlikely to takeoff in the coming quarters as higher government spending and consumption will likely be negated by slower export and investment growth.

Although we expect Indonesia's budget deficit and public debt levels as a share of GDP to remain relatively stable, debt belonging to SOEs has ballooned con-siderably since 2015. Given that this SOE debt is a contingent liability for the government, we highlight that the healthy headline fiscal figures are not a true reflection of the leverage that the government has built up in recent years.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Major Forecast Changes
Key Risks
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Indonesia's Growth To Remain Capped As Headwinds Mount
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
TABLE: MAIN EXPORT AND IMPORT PARTNERS
TABLE: MAIN EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
Monetary Policy
Bank Indonesia To Adopt More Hawkish Stance Amid Rising External Uncertainty
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
Indonesia's Fiscal Health Increasingly At Risk Amid Increase In SOE Debt
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
Indonesia Country Risk Q4 2018ContentsCurrency Forecast
Pain Not Yet Over For Indonesian Rupiah
TABLE: FITCH SOLUTIONS CURRENCY FORECAST
10-Year Forecast
The Indonesian Economy To 2027
A Bullish Long-Term Growth Story
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Jokowi's VP Pick To Increase His Chances, But Political Islam To Rise In Indonesia
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Long-Term Political Outlook
Outlook Improved, But Uncertainty Lingers
Global Macro Outlook
Strong Growth, But Greater Headwinds Too
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: INDONESIA – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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