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Indonesia Agribusiness Report Q2 2016

Indonesia Agribusiness Report Q2 2016

BMI View: We hold an optimistic outlook towards Indonesia's agriculture sector and see significant growthopportunities in sub-sectors such as livestock, sugar and palm oil. The country's goal to become selfsufficient in a large number of commodities is overly ambitious in light of the robust outlook for food anddrink consumption. Agricultural production will struggle to expand in the coming years amidst scarceagricultural land, the lack of proper infrastructure and the existence of a large number of low-technology,small-scale farmers. While we believe that Indonesia will be able to reduce its dependence on rice importsin the coming years, sugar, corn and beef self-sufficiency are far-fetched. More worryingly, we expectcoffee and cocoa production to record very weak production growth in the coming years.

BMI Key Forecasts

Cocoa production growth between 2014/15 and 2019/20: 5.3% to 368,000 tonnes. Production growthwill slightly accelerate beyond 2018, as private grinders are slowly developing programmes to improveplantation management and foster best practices. Until then output will see weak growth.

Palm oil consumption growth between 2015 and 2020: 30.1% to 12.6mn tonnes. Relatively recentrefining and biodiesel policies (B15 mandate) will continue to inflate domestic consumption of palm oilin the coming years.

Sugar production growth between 2014/15 and 2019/20: 36.4% to 3.0mn tonnes. The strong growthrate is mainly due to base effects as production declines in 2014/15. Moderate expansion in plantationswill help output grow in the coming years, but production growth will be held back by poor canerecovery rates, harvest management and infrastructure issues.


BMI Industry View
SWOT
Agribusiness
Industry Forecast
Rice Outlook
Table: Indonesia - Rice Production & Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks To Outlook
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2013-2020)
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2011-2019)
Grains Outlook
Table: Indonesia - Grains Production & Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks To Outlook
Table: Grains Production & Consumption (Indonesia, 2013-2020)
Sugar Outlook
Table: Indonesia - Sugar Production And Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks To Outlook
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2013-2020)
Livestock Outlook
Table: Indonesia - Livestock Production & Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks To Outlook
Table: Livestock Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2013-2020)
Coffee Outlook
Table: Indonesia - Coffee Production & Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks To Outlook
Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2013-2020)
Cocoa Outlook
Table: Indonesia - Cocoa Production & Consumption Outlook
Table: Risk To Outlook
Table: Cocoa Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2013-2020)
Palm Oil Outlook
Table: Indonesia - Palm Oil Production & Consumption Outlook
Table: Indonesia - Risks To Palm Oil Outlook
Table: Indonesia - Minimum Wage ('000 IDR) & Palm Oil Production By Province, 2012-2016
Table: Palm Oil Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2013-2020)
Table: Palm Oil Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2011-2019)
Commodities Price Analysis
Global Commodities Strategy
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts
Upstream Analysis
Asia Machinery Outlook
Table: Select Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares
Asia GM Outlook
Table: Selected Countries - GM Crops Use (mn hectares)
Asia Fertiliser Outlook
Downstream Analysis
Food
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Indonesia 2012-2019)
Canned Food
Confectionery
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Indonesia 2012-2019)
Regional Overview
Table: Impact Of El Niño On Crops
Competitive Landscape
Table: Major Agribusiness Companies
Demographic Forecast
Demographic Outlook
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Indonesia 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Indonesia 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Indonesia 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Indonesia 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Indonesia 1990-2025)
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology

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