Upstream performance will continue to diverge over the coming years, with firming production and new inflows ofcapital into gas counterbalanced by sharp underperformance in crude. Small field auctions will help offset natural decline rates, butthe prospects for major greenfield investments in oil are poor. New reforms - which have improved licensing procedures and fiscalterms - pose additional upside in the coming years. The refining sector will continue to grow, feeding rising domestic demand andcompeting for market share abroad. However, rising global oil prices will see profit margins for some refiners becoming squeezed.We are bullish on the prospects for demand for both oil and gas over the long term, but a sharp deterioration in the 2020 economicoutlook poses headwinds to growth next year.
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