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India Mining Report Q2 2016

India Mining Report Q2 2016

BMI View: India's mining sector will experience solid growth, primarily boosted by the country's positivereforms and vast mineral reserves. Despite this, the sector will continue to face challenges due to thecountry's inadequate operating environment, mining royalties and low metals prices, which will preventIndia from reaching its full growth potential.

Latest Developments & Structural Trends

India will continue to suffer from a persistent coal deficit over the coming years although the countrypossesses one of the world's largest coal reserves and has significant production growth potential. Weforecast India's coal output to grow from 753mn tonnes (mnt) in 2016 to 1,014mnt in 2020, postingaverage annual growth of 7.6% during 2016-2020, a sizeable acceleration from an average growth of4.5% annually during 2011-2015. This is because the Indian government has made great progress inimproving coal mine production and coal offtake in recent quarters.

We forecast India's iron ore output to grow from 159.9mnt in 2016 to 198.8mnt in 2020. This representsan average annual growth of 5.0% during 2016-2020, higher than the average contraction of 5.6% y-o-yover 2011-2015, following mining bans in the three largest iron-ore producing states of Goa, Odisha andKarnataka, which have since been lifted. Although the passing of the Mines & Minerals Developmentand Regulation Act will support India's iron ore output growth, weak iron ore prices will limit the sectorgrowth outlook. We forecast iron ore prices to average USD52.0/tonne over 2016-2020, significantlylower than USD115.0/tonne during 2011-2015. This is due to oversupply from Australian miners andweakened Chinese demand for iron ore.


BMI Industry View
Table: India - Mining Industry Value Forecast
Latest Developments & Structural Trends
SWOT
Industry Forecast
Bauxite: Ordinance To Boost Production
Latest Developments
Table: Bauxite Production Forecast (India 2015-2020)
Table: India - Bauxite Projects
Structural Trends
Iron Ore: MMDR Act, Two Sides Of A Coin
Latest Developments
Table: Iron Ore Production Forecast (India 2012-2020)
Table: India - New Iron Ore Projects
Structural Trends
Zinc: HZL To Lift Growth
Latest Developments
Table: Zinc Production Forecast (India 2012-2020)
Table: India - Select Zinc Mining Projects
Structural Trends
Coal India To Lead Growth Drive
Latest Developments
Table: Coal Production Forecast (India 2014-2020)
Table: India - Select Coal Mine Projects
Structural Trends
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
India - Risk/Reward Index
Rewards
Industry Rewards
Country Rewards
Risks
Industry Risks
Country Risks
Asia Risk Reward Index
Australia Stays On Top While India & Myanmar Gain
Shifting Scores Reflect Changing Sector Dynamics
Table: Asia - Mining Risk/Reward Index
Regulatory Development
Trade & Investment Risk Analysis
Commodities Forecast
Commodity Strategy
Ferrous Metals
Iron Ore: Price Weakness To Continue Over Coming Years
Steel: Oversupply To Drag Down Prices
Non-Ferrous Metals
Aluminium: Continued Weakness, But No Sharp Downturn
Copper: Recent Relief Rally To Fade
Lead: Prices Weakness To Continue
Nickel: Subdued Prices Due To Weak Demand Growth
Tin: Supply Deficits To Underpin Rally In Tin Prices
Zinc: Positive Multi-Year Outlook, But Increasing Risks In Months Ahead
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
Table: India - Select Listed Mining Companies
Company Profile
Coal India Ltd (CIL)
Table: Coal India Ltd - Key Financial Data
Hindustan Copper
Table: Hindustan Copper-Supply Chain Analysis
Table: Hindustan Copper - Key Financial Data
NMDC
Table: NMDC- Supply Chain Analysis
Table: NMDC - Key Financial Data
Global Company Strategy - Vedanta Resources - Q1 2016
Latest Financial Results
Company Strategy
Table: Vedanta Resources - Supply Chain Analysis
Company Details
Table: Vedanta Resources - Key Financial Data
Regional Overview
Continued Domination Of Iron Ore Production
Indian Coal Consumption To Outperform
China & India To Lead In Outbound Investment
Indonesian Ban To Continue
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sources
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

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