India Freight Transport and Shipping Report Q2 2016
BMI View: Growth in India's freight transport sector will be underpinned by stable economic growth andan expanding manufacturing sector. We expect the country's ports, road and rail sector will be the primarybeneficiaries of Narendra Modi's 'Make in India' campaign to boost manufacturing output. Meanwhile,rising consumer demand and a buoyant pharmaceutical sector will see air freight growth outperform theother freight modes.
We estimate moderate trade growth in real terms in 2015 (ending March 2016), rising by 1.8% - althoughthis is an improvement on the real contraction recorded in 2014. Growth will accelerate in 2016, rising to2.7%. Exports will be the key driver of growth in both years - in 2015 exports will rise by 2.5% comparedto imports' 1.0%, while in the following year the growth levels will be 3.5% and 1.8% respectively. Inpositive news for air freight and the road haulage sector, we expect the government's efforts to boost themanufacturing sector through the 'Make In India' campaign to continue gaining traction, which is evident invarious high frequency data.
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