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India Country Risk Report Q4 2018

India Country Risk Report Q4 2018

India's full year real GDP growth for FY2017/18 (April – March) came in at 6.7%, boosted by a strong fourth quarter which saw GDP grow by 7.7% y-o-y on the back of robust expansion in construction, manufacturing and trade. Over the coming months, we forecast India's growth momentum to remain strong, with domestic consumption growth providing tailwinds to the construction, manufacturing, and trade-related services sectors. Accordingly, we forecast growth to come in at 7.3% for FY2018/19.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic - SWOT Analysis
Political - SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
India's Growth Set For Outperformance In FY2018/19
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
TABLE: MAIN EXPORT AND IMPORT PARTNERS
TABLE: MAIN EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
Monetary Policy
Upward Price Pressures To Spur Further Rate Hikes In India
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
India's Government Coffers Set To Benefit From GST Scheme Enhancements
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
India Country Risk Q4 2018ContentsCurrency Forecast
Indian Rupee To Remain Weak
TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST
10-Year Forecast
The Indian Economy To 2027
Will Indian Growth Live Up To Expectations?
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
India's BJP To Step Up Measures To Boost Rural Vote Ahead Of Lower House Elections
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Long-Term Political Outlook
Shifting Towards A Pro-Business Stance
Global Macro Outlook
Pressure On EM Grows, As Do Divergences
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: INDIA – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS

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