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India Country Risk Report 20 2018

India Country Risk Report 20 2018

The Indian economy has broadly benefited from the reforms under-taken by the government since it took office in May 2014, and we expect the administration led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to continue to enact incremental reforms over the coming years, which should be positive for the economy.

We are revising our FY2017/18 (April-March) and FY2018/19 real GDP growth forecasts higher to 6.6% and 7.3% (versus 6.4% and 6.7% previously) respectively, following a strong pickup in growth to 7.2% y-o-y in Q3 FY2017/18, from the low of 5.7% in the first quar-ter. Economic growth will continue to be driven by the construction, manufacturing and services sectors over the coming quarters.

We are revising our forecast for the Indian central government fiscal deficit to come in at 3.5% of GDP in FY2018/19 (April-March), from 3.3% previously, following the release of the FY2018/19 Union Budget on February as policymakers seek to promote economic growth by reducing the pace of fiscal consolidation. Increased spending on transport infrastructure, rural development and support to small businesses are likely to be positive for economic growth.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Index
Economic Growth Outlook
Stronger Growth From Construction, Manufacturing And Services
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
TABLE: MAIN EXPORT AND IMPORT PARTNERS
TABLE: MAIN EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
Monetary Policy
RBI To Hike As Moderation In Food Prices Likely To Be Short-Lived
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
FY2018/19 Union Budget: Fiscal Consolidation Pushed Back
TABLE: KEY EXPENDITURE INITIATIVES
TABLE: KEY REVENUE-SIDE INITIATIVES
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
Currency Forecast
INR: Range Bound Over The Coming Months
TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
The Indian Economy To 2027
Will Indian Growth Live Up To Expectations?
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Index
Domestic Politics
Rural And Agriculture Focus To Support BJP's Election Efforts
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
TABLE: KEY UPCOMING STATE ELECTIONS
Long-Term Political Outlook
Gradual Reform To Prevail Over The Coming Decade
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
Operational Risk
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
Business Crime
TABLE: BUSINESS RESPONSE TO WHITE COLLAR AND ORGANISED CRIME
Education
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
Trade Tensions Take Centre Stage
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: INDIA – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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