India Consumer & Retail Report Q4 2017
The implementation of GST and lingering impact of demonentisation has negatively influencedconfidence in the most recent quarter, ending June 2017. However, slowing inflation, a robust economy andstill high confidence should overcome these short-term challenges to see another strong year ofconsumption growth, although down slightly form 2016. As a result, it remains one of the fastest-growingmarkets in the world.
We expect the Indian economy to remain the fastest growing major economy in Asia owing to robustmanufacturing and services sectors, as well support from an accommodative monetary policy by the centralbank. As a result, we forecast real GDP growth of 6.9% for FY2016/17 (April-March). We are also bullishon the immediate outlook for consumer spending, projecting real growth in private final consumption in2017 to reach 7.8% and 6.0% in 2018. This remains slightly lower than highs recorded over the last decade,but it is certainly a positive story given the size of the consumer market, and in comparison with globalpeers.
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