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Iceland Country Risk Report Q4 2018

Iceland Country Risk Report Q4 2018

Key View:

Stronger-than-expected real GDP growth in Q118 has prompted us to revise up our full-year 2018 growth forecast. That said, we believe the factors that under-pinned the first quarter's outperformance (strong growth for fish exports and residential investment) will fade over the course of the year and the increase to our growth forecast is moderate. Our medium-term view on the economy, namely that growth will slow amid a cooling tourism sector and waning consumer demand, also remains unchanged by the stronger-than-expected first quarter print.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Major Forecast Changes
Key Risks
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Economy To Lose Momentum Despite Strong Q118 GDP Growth
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Outlook On External Position
10-Year Forecast
The Icelandic Economy To 2027
Settling Into More Moderate Long-Term Growth Trend
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Falling Support For LG Indicative Of Coalition Fragility
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Iceland Country Risk Q4 2018ContentsLong-Term Political Outlook
Political Stability To Remain
Global Macro Outlook
Strong Growth, But Greater Headwinds Too
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: ICELAND – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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