Hong Kong SAR Country Risk Report Q4 2020

Hong Kong SAR Country Risk Report Q4 2020

Core View. We at Fitch Solutions now expect a full-year contraction in Hong Kong's real GDP of 7.0%, from 2.6% previously. All major expenditure components of GDP arelikely to continue being in deep contraction over the rest of 2020, with the exception of government consumption. Besides the Covid-19 pandemic, Hong Kongfaces further political risks given several key flashpoints that could re-emerge in the latter half of 2020, including legislative elections due by September, furtherclouding prospects for recovery.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Major Forecast Changes
Key Risks
Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Hong Kong Economy To Remain Under Crushing Weight Of Coronavirus, Political Risks
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: TOP 5 GOOD EXPORTS
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
10-Year Forecast
The Hong Kong Economy To 2029
Downshifting As China Cools Off
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS COUNTRY RISK & INDUSTRY RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings’ Credit Ratings. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research.Hong Kong SAR Risk Q4 2020ContentsPolitical Outlook
Domestic Politics
Hong Kong Dispute To Spark Re-Escalation Of US-China Trade Tensions
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Long-Term Political Outlook
Hong Kong To See Periodic Mass Unrest In 2020s, Barring Major Reforms
Operational Risk
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK SCORES
Labour Costs
TABLE: LABOUR REGULATIONS GOVERNING FLEXIBILITY OF WORKFORCE
Legal Environment
TABLE: BUREAUCRATIC PROCEDURES
Global Macro Outlook
The Worst Is Behind Us, But Emerging Markets Starting To Lag
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2019-2024)
TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: HONG KONG – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS

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