Hong Kong Real Estate Report 2016
BMI View: The office sector continues to offer the most promise regarding rentals, as Grade Aestablishments remain in high demand and lack of available space is pushing upward trend. Industrial realestate also represents a potential area for investment as the limited space, good demand and inaugurationof national 'reindustrialisation' looks to offer opportunities in the mid-term. We opine that Retail willwitness further contractions and advise vigilance when considering this market over the same period.
We have revised our economic forecast for growth in Hong Kong with real GDP to remain steady at 2.5%over 2016, no change from 2015, as the regional pressures, predominantly stemming from fiscal reformsand corrections in China, Hong Kong's largest trade partner, weigh-in on demand into the Asian Tigereconomy. A main culprit that has subdued interest is the strong national currency. The HKD is tied to theUS dollar, the recent rally in the greenback has seen Hong Kong exports become less competitive and thecity viewed as a more expensive destination for travel and commerce. However, promising underlyingmacro-economic factors, such as rising private consumption, and the fact that foreign companies areinterested in Hong Kong's semi-autonomous market due to its transparency and strong legal accountability,will keep demand particularly strong in areas such as tertiary services. We therefore opine real GDP to grow1.1% to 3.6% by 2017. All three real estate sub-sectors that we cover are likely to benefit from theimproving economic situation, and see activity rise across the medium term.
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