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Hong Kong Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

Hong Kong Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

BMI View: Hong Kong will remain entirely dependent on refined fuels imports. Increases in vehiclepopulation and air traffic will sustain the uptrend in refined fuels demand, although growth will remainstunted until 2016, due to weaker economic outlook. The city will become even more reliant on pipednatural gas from mainland China as gas-fired plants replace ageing coal power plants.

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts

Hong Kong's near-term demand for refined fuels will remain stunted due to a weaker economic outlookover 2014-2016. Increases in vehicle population and air traffic will sustain the uptrend in refined fuelsdemand.

Costlier vehicle financing, a cooling property market and the slowing Chinese economy pose downsiderisks to our forecast. These factors may dampen the demand for new vehicles and air travel, therebyweakening demand for refined fuels.

Over the longer term, policies that encourage purchase of cleaner and more fuel efficient vehicles willmoderate the increase in refined fuel demand beyond 2020. For instance, the number of electric vehicleson the roads has grown exponentially due to financial incentives and rapid deployment of charginginfrastructure.

The city state will become even more reliant on piped natural gas from mainland China as gas-firedplants replace ageing coal power plants. The possibility that the share of natural gas in the fuel mix wouldincrease to 60%, rather than 40%, poses upside risk to our forecast.


BMI Industry View
Table: Headline Forecasts (Hong Kong 2014-2020)
Latest Updates And Key Forecasts
SWOT
Oil & Gas SWOT
Industry Forecast
Upstream Exploration
Upstream Production - Oil
Table: Oil Production (Hong Kong 2014-2019)
Table: Oil Production (Hong Kong 2020-2025)
Upstream Production - Gas
Table: Gas Production (Hong Kong 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Production (Hong Kong 2020-2025)
Refining
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Hong Kong 2014-2019)
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Hong Kong 2020-2025)
Refined Fuels Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Hong Kong 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Hong Kong 2020-2025)
Gas Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Gas Consumption (Hong Kong 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Consumption (Hong Kong 2020-2025)
Trade - Oil
Crude Oil Trade Forecast
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Hong Kong 2014-2020)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Hong Kong 2020-2025)
Refined Fuels Trade Forecast
Structural Trends
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Hong Kong 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Hong Kong 2020-2025)
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Gas Net Exports (Hong Kong 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Hong Kong 2020-2025)
Industry Risk Reward Index
Asia - Risk/Reward Index
Upstream Risk/Reward Index: Persistent Oil Price Weakness Underpins Bearish Outlook
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Downstream Risk/Reward Index: Projection For Weaker Economic Growth Undermines India's Scores
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Hong Kong - Risk/Reward Index
Hong Kong Upstream Index - Overview
Hong Kong Upstream Index - Rewards
Hong Kong Upstream Index - Risks
Hong Kong Downstream Index - Overview
Market Overview
Hong Kong Energy Market Overview
Regulatory Structure
Table: Hong Kong - Key Taxes
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Service Stations
Oil Storage And Terminals
Gas Pipelines
Competitive Landscape
Competitive Landscape Summary
Table: Key Players - Hong Kong Oil & Gas Sector
Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Profile
Company Summaries
Regional Overview
Industry Trend Analysis
Glossary
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Source
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Weighting

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