Hong Kong Freight Transport and Shipping Report Q2 2016
BMI View: Hong Kong's trade outlook remains poor over the near-future, as its close trade links with themainland will undermine the potential for a recovery in 2016, and this will weigh on the freight transportsector to a significant degree. Meanwhile, the global trade outlook is scarcely better for the upcoming year,with middling growth outlooks in the US, EU, and Japan, among others.
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While we do believe that the years of declines in road freight cargo volumes in Hong Kong are over,forecasting a second consecutive year of growth in 2016, we are nevertheless fairly bearish towards thesector. We expect that a poor outlook for trade generally will keep growth sedate, despite ongoinginvestment in the roads and bridges.
Hong Kong International Airport will continue to defy the trade slowdown and boost record-breakingthroughput figures, ably supported by Cathay Pacific Cargo, the largest air freight handler in Asia. Weforecast an expansion of 4.2% in 2016, and an average annual growth rate of 4.1% to 2020.
The Port of Hong Kong will struggle to maintain positive growth over the coming years in the face ofboth a slowing Chinese economy and the growing challenge of mainland ports to its position - thepotential for a change in cabotage laws would be a particular blow for the facility.
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