Hong Kong Freight Transport Report Q1 2016
BMI View: We forecast modest but nonetheless positive growth for Hong Kong's freight sector in 2016 andbeyond. The current slowdown in the Chinese economy is affecting trade flows in Hong Kong, hurting theeconomy and consequently impacting all freight modes in the city state owing to its dependence on tradewith China. Due to the developed nature of the freight sector in Hong Kong, and with a forecasteddownturn in demand for goods over the medium term, we expect growth to be robust, but subdued for allfreight modes.
GDP growth is forecasted at 3.5% for 2016 and to steadily increase over the medium term at an annualaverage of 3.5%. However, Hong Kong's economy is dependent on trade with China, and the latter's bleakoutlook will have a negative impact on import and export growth for the city state over the medium term.
The Chinese economy has lost further momentum at the end of 2015 and as such, we have downgraded our2016 export and import growth forecast to 1.4% and 1.7% respectively.
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