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Hong Kong Freight Transport Report Q1 2016

Hong Kong Freight Transport Report Q1 2016

BMI View: We forecast modest but nonetheless positive growth for Hong Kong's freight sector in 2016 andbeyond. The current slowdown in the Chinese economy is affecting trade flows in Hong Kong, hurting theeconomy and consequently impacting all freight modes in the city state owing to its dependence on tradewith China. Due to the developed nature of the freight sector in Hong Kong, and with a forecasteddownturn in demand for goods over the medium term, we expect growth to be robust, but subdued for allfreight modes.

GDP growth is forecasted at 3.5% for 2016 and to steadily increase over the medium term at an annualaverage of 3.5%. However, Hong Kong's economy is dependent on trade with China, and the latter's bleakoutlook will have a negative impact on import and export growth for the city state over the medium term.

The Chinese economy has lost further momentum at the end of 2015 and as such, we have downgraded our2016 export and import growth forecast to 1.4% and 1.7% respectively.


BMI Industry View
SWOT
Freight Transport
Political
Economic
Operational Risk
Industry Forecast
Trade Forecast
Table: Trade Overview (Hong Kong 2012-2019)
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Hong Kong 2012-2019)
Table: Main Import Partners
Table: Main Export Partners
Road Freight Forecast
Table: Road Freight (Hong Kong 2012-2019)
Air Freight Forecast
Table: Air Freight (Hong Kong 2012-2019)
Market Overview
Company Profile
Cathay Pacific Cargo
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Long Term Political Outlook
Table: Hong Kong Political Overview
Oil Price Outlook
Europe - Brent On Board For A Bumpy Ride
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Economic Analysis
Table: Economic Activity (Hong Kong 2010-2019)
Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Hong Kong 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Hong Kong 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Hong Kong 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Hong Kong 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Hong Kong 1990-2025)
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology
Sources

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