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Hong Kong Country Risk Report Q2 2018

Hong Kong Country Risk Report Q2 2018

Executive Summary

Core Views

Hong Kong’s economy held up well in the first three quarters of 2017, clocking in real GDP growth of 3.9% y-o-y and we are revis- ing up our 2017 forecast to 3.7% from 3.5% previously. However, we are maintaining our forecast of 3.0% in 2018 due to a cooling housing market and slowing trade, despite some support from the retail sector.

Executive Summary
Core Views
Major Forecast Changes
Key Risks
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Index
Economic Growth Outlook
Growth To Slow In 2018 Amid Mounting Headwinds
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
Monetary Policy Framework
Structural Fiscal Position
Outlook On External Position
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
The Hong Kong Economy To 2027
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Index
Domestic Politics
One Country, Two Systems Framework To Remain Firmly Intact
Long-Term Political Outlook
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
Operational Risk
Transport Network
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook

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