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Haiti Country Risk Reports 2015

Core Views

Haiti will struggle with subdued growth, significant political unrest and sustained budget deficits over our 10-year forecast period. While there is concerted international effort to assist Haiti's reconstruction following the 2010 earthquake, it will take decades for the country to raise living standards to those of its regional peers.

The country will also remain one of the most politically unstable countries globally. The country is still struggling to recover from the catastrophic 2010 earthquake, a situation made worse by rampant poverty, weak governance and endemic corruption.

While suppressed global oil prices may in the short term alleviate pressure on Haitian consumers and businesses, in the longer term it will damage Haitian growth prospects. Haiti relies on discounted oil from Venezuela as its primary fuel cost. With low global oil prices set to hit the Venezuelan economy hard, the government in Caracas is likely to scale back its Petrocaribe oil programme discounts, to the detriment of long-term Haitian economic activity.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks To Outlook
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Index
Domestic Politics
Resignation Of Prime Minister Insufficient To Ease Political Tensions
The resignation of Haitian Prime Minister Laurent Lamothe will be insufficient to resolve the country's long-standing political crisis.
While the creation of a 'consensus' government under Prime Minister Evans Paul is a positive step towards conciliation, we believe the
country's democratic institutions will suffer further setbacks, weighing on investor sentiment.
Long-Term Political Outlook
Major Threats To Stability To Remain Prominent
Haiti will remain one of the most politically unstable countries in the world. The country is still struggling to recover from the catastrophic
2010 earthquake, a situation made worse by rampant poverty, weak governance and endemic corruption.
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Index
Economic Activity
Still Playing Catch-Up
Haiti will struggle with subdued growth, significant political unrest and sustained budget deficits over our 10-year forecast period. While
there is a concerted international effort to assist Haiti's reconstruction following the 2010 earthquake, it will take decades for the country
to raise living standards to those of regional peers.
TABLE: Long-Term Mac roec onomic Forecasts
Chapter 3: Demographic Outlook
Demographic Outlook 2015
TABLE: Population By Age Group (Haiti 1990-2025)
TABLE: Population By Age Group % (Haiti 1990-2025)
TABLE: Population Headline Indicators (Haiti 1990-2025)
TABLE: Key Population Ratios (Haiti 1990-2025)
TABLE: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Haiti 1990-2025)
Chapter 4: BMI Global Assumptions
Global Outlook
New Era For Oil
Table : Global Assumptions
Table: Developed States, Real GDP GrowtH, %
Table : BMI VERSUS BLOO MBERG CON SENSUS REAL GDP GRO WTH FORECASTS, %
Table : Eme rgi ng Markets , Real GDP Growth , %

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