Grenada Country Risk Report 2017
Grenada's centre-left opposition National Democratic Congresswill likely retake power from the centre-right New National Party inthe 2018 elections, as support for the ruling NNP has declined onthe back of fiscal austerity. An NDC government will likely pursuelooser fiscal policy over the coming years, we believe that the risksof a renewed debt crisis are relatively low.
Over the next two years, the Grenadian economy will grow at a rateabove its historical average. This is thanks to a bright outlook for thetourism sector and slightly looser fiscal policy.
Tourism will continue to recover over the next decade, with growthin the US economy and parts of Europe picking up. Declining unemploymentand greater wage growth in the US, a major source oftourists to Grenada, will contribute to robust tourism flows to Caribbeandestinations in the coming years.
Major Forecast Changes
No major forecast changes
- Executive Summary
- Core Views
- Major Forecast Changes
- Key Risk
- Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
- SWOT Analysis
- BMI Economic Risk Index
- Economic Growth Outlook
- Steady Growth On Tourism And Looser Fiscal Policy
- Over the next two years, the Grenadian economy will grow at a rate above its historical average. This is thanks to a bright outlook for
- the tourism sector and slightly looser fiscal policy.
- Long-Term Economic Outlook
- Steady Growth Ahead
- Economic growth in Grenada will remain subdued over the next 10 years, though it will benefit from a stronger tourism sector. Th e
- country will continue to run current account deficits, however the fiscal situation will gradually improve. While the effects of fiscal
- consolidation have weighed on GDP growth, the scheduled end of austerity in 2017 will lead to an uptick in government consumption,
- supporting headline real GDP growth of 2.3% over the next decad e.
- TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
- Chapter 2: Political Outlook
- SWOT Analysis
- BMI Political Risk Index
- Domestic Politics
- Looser Fiscal Policy Will Follow Likely Opposition Victory
- Grenada's centre-left opposition National Democratic Congress will likely retake power from the centre-right New National Party in
- the 2018 elections, as support for the ruling NNP has declined on the back of fiscal austerity. An NDC government will likely p ursue
- looser fiscal policy over the coming years, we believe that the risks of a renewed debt crisis are relatively low.
- Long-Term Political Outlook
- Unemployment The Key Challenge
- Grenada will remain stable over the next 10 years, but will face increased political risk from public spending cuts and narcotics
- transhipment. Reducing unemployment and stimulating economic growth amid a high debt load will be the government's key
- Chapter 3: Demographic Outlook
- Demographic Outlook
- TABLE: POPULATION BY AGE GROUP
- TABLE: POPULATION BY AGE GROUP %
- TABLE: POPULATION HEADLINE INDICATORS
- TABLE: KEY POPULATION RATIOS
- TABLE: URBAN/RURAL POPULATION & LIFE EXPECTANCY
- Chapter 4: BMI Global Macro Outlook
- DM Growth Peaking, But EMs Have Room To Run
- TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
- TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
- TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
- TABLE: GRENADA – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS