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Greece Tourism Report Q2 2015

Greece Tourism Report Q2 2015

BMI View: We believe that over the short term, Greece's tourism industry will suffer from the politicaluncertainty, as potential risks of domestic unrest deter visitors. Moreover, the continued economicpressures and high unemployment will constrain domestic tourism and outbound tourist departuresconsiderably. That said, should Greece exit the EU we would anticipate a surge in tourism numbers as theprobable return to the drachma would make holidays in Greece attractively cheap. Finally, towards the endof 2015 and in the first part of 2016, we expect that the passing on of lower fuel prices to consumers byairlines will boost the wider tourism flows across Europe, and Greece could be a key beneficiary of thistrend.

The finance ministers failed to come to an agreement in their previous meeting on February 11, and bothsides did not even make a joint statement following the talks. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsiprasmaintains Greece wants to agree a 'bridging loan' to be put in place until August, while a new deal is agreedto replace the current troika bailout. The eurozone lenders say Greece must agree an extension of its currentbailout deal, which expires on February 28. We do not think either side will come to an agreement in talkswithin this deadline. Instead, the best that can probably be hoped for is that both sides agree to a further setof meetings over the coming weeks. Both sides are taking an increasingly hard-line stance in the talks toboost their bargaining position, implying that progress towards any agreements will be sluggish at best.

Nevertheless, we still think some form of compromise agreement will be reached, giving Greece and thetroika more time for discussions over renegotiating the country's current bailout. Over the long term, webelieve Greece will manage to extract some concessions from the troika lenders, with debt maturities onGreece's debts being extended as part of a renegotiated bailout package. This will do just enough to avert apotential Greek default and exit from the eurozone in 2015.


BMI Industry View
SWOT
Tourism
Political
Economic
Industry Forecast
Inbound Tourism
Table: Inbound Tourism (Greece 2012-2019)
Table: Greece Inbound Tourism, Top 10 Markets by Arrivals '000, 2012-2019
Outbound Tourism
Table: Outbound Tourism (Greece 2012-2019)
Table: Greece Outbound Tourism, Top 10 Markets by Departures '000, 2012-2019
Travel
Table: Receipts for Transport and Travel (Greece 2012-2019)
Table: Breakdown of Methods of Tourist Travel (Greece 2012-2019)
Hotels
Table: Hotel Accommodation (Greece 2012-2019)
Table: Hotels and Restaurants Industry Value (Greece 2012-2019)
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
Industry Risk/Reward Index
Tourism Risk/Reward Index
Table: Western Europe Tourism Risk/Reward Index
Security Risk
Market Overview
Table: Greece Transport Infrastructure Projects - Airports
Table: Top 10 Global Hotel Groups' Presence in Greece
Competitive Landscape
Global Industry Overview
Global Assumptions
Table: Global Assumptions, 2014-2019
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2014-2017 (% change y-o-y)
Developed States
Table: Developed States, Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2014-2017
Emerging Markets
Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2014-2017
Table: BMI Versus Bloomberg Consensus Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2015 And 2016 (%)
Demographic Data
Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Greece 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Greece 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Greece 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Greece 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Greece 1990-2025)
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

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