Greece Telecommunications Report Q2 2016
BMI View: Our Q2 2016 update on the Greek telecommunications market presents a revised outlook forthe country's mobile and fixed-line subscriber sectors. We have also extended all of our forecasts through to2020. The revised mobile and fixed-line subscriber forecasts are based on a stronger performance for bothsectors in 9M15. The Greek mobile market added a healthy 517,000 new subscribers in the first ninemonths of 2015. Meanwhile, fixed-line connections contracted at a slower rate than we had previouslypredicted. We remain cautiously optimistic about the Greek market in general. The mobile market is highlysaturated and other concerning trends point towards a shift in low-cost prepaid services, meaningconsumers are spending less. The three major carriers had launched 4G services by the start of 2015.
Operators are expected to put a growing emphasis on the promotion of 3G and 4G subscriptions andservices over the next five years as a way of winning and retaining customers and boosting revenue.
Latest Updates And Industry Developments
Based on evidence of strong subscriber growth in the first nine months of 2015, we now estimate thatGreece had 16.242mn mobile subscriptions at the end of the year, up by 4% y-o-y and equating topenetration of more than 148%. We now predict just over 16.8mn mobile subscriptions and apenetration of 155.3% by the end of our new five-year forecast period to 2020.
The primary focus of Greece's three mobile network operators, Cosmote, Vodafone and WIND Hellas,is on the promotion of 3G and 4G LTE services. Customer numbers are expected to rise fromapproximately 7.59mn in 2015 to just over 8.85mn in 2020.
Using data from Cosmote (formerly OTE) for the first nine months of 2015, we now estimate thatGreece had 4.722mn fixed-line subscribers at the end of 2015, down by 1% y-o-y and equivalent to apenetration rate of 43.1%. Similarly, we now We estimate that there were 4.493mn fixed and mobilebroadband subscriptions at the end of 2015, up by 8.6% y-o-y. This will rise to 5.09mn by the end of2020, representing penetration of 47%.
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