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Greece Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

Greece Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

BMI View: We have upgraded our crude oil production forecasts as Energean has begun production in the Prinos field and the investment-expansion programme will yield results on schedule, significantly ramping up Greek oil production before 2020. On the downside, we downgraded our domestic fuels consumption outlook again as new numbers reveal very weak demand for diesel, gasoline and heating oil in the first quarter of 2016. We reiterate our view that natural gas, especially midstream, will be the largest growth opportunity in the Greek energy space with TAP beginning construction in June and DEPA focusing on growing the domestic gas market infrastructure.

Latest Updates and

Key Forecasts

We have revised our forecasts upwards for crude oil production in 2016 following the start up of the first new development well in Prinos in late December 2015, which has added 1,500 b/d. We forecast daily average crude oil production of 3,000 b/d for 2016, ramping up further by 2020 to reach nearly 10,000 b/ d.

Refiner Hellenic Petroleum (ELPE) has received its first shipment of Iranian crude, circa 1mn barrels. ELPE will be one of the largest European customers for Iranian crude, having completed an understanding for up to 2mn bbls per month from Iran, if the price remains more competitive than other suppliers.

Refined fuels exports from Greece will remain the country's largest export by a wide margin and will increase in 2016 by 5% according to our forecasts as margins for refiners remain very healthy but the domestic market depresses further, leaving more available for exports.

The TAP natural gas pipeline will begin construction in June 2016, with two consortiums one led by J&P Avax and the other by ELLAKTOR winning the EPC contracts for the Greek section of the pipeline works.


BMI Industry View
Table: Headline Forecasts (Greece 2014-2020)
SWOT
Oil & Gas SWOT
Industry Forecast
Upstream Exploration
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Upstream Projects
Table: Greece - Key Upstream Projects
Upstream Production - Oil
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Energean Production Timeline
Table: Oil Production (2014-2024)
Upstream Production - Gas
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Gas Production (Greece 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Production (Greece 2020-2025)
Refining
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Greece 2014-2019)
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Greece 2020-2025)
Refined Fuels Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Greece 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Greece 2020-2025)
Gas Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: List of Gas-Fired Power Plants in Greece
Table: Gas Consumption (Greece 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Consumption (Greece 2020-2025)
Trade - Oil
Crude Oil Trade Forecasts
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Greece 2014-2020)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Greece 2020-2025)
Fuel Trade Forecasts
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Greece 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Greece 2020-2025)
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Gas Net Exports (Greece 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Greece 2020-2025)
Industry Risk/Reward Index
North America And Western Europe - Risk/Reward Index
Table: North America And Western Europe - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Upstream: North America To Maintain Lead
Table: North America And Western Europe - Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Downstream: US Widens Lead
Table: North America And Western Europe - Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Greece - Risk/Reward Index
Market Overview
Energy Market Overview
Regulatory Structure
Fiscal Regime
Table: Greece- Upstream Tax Regime
Licensing Regime
Table: Greece - Contracts and Licensing Regime
Licensing Rounds
Table: Greece - Completed and Ongoing Upstream Licensing Rounds
Exclusive Economic Zone
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Table: Oil Refineries In Greece
Oil Storage Facilities
Oil Terminals/Ports
Table: Greece - Oil Terminals & Ports
LNG Terminals
Table: Greece - Existing and Planned LNG Terminals
Gas Storage Terminals
Table: Greece - Gas Storage Terminals
Gas Pipelines
Table: Greece - Natural Gas Pipelines
Crude Oil Pipelines
Table: Greece - Crude Oil Pipelines
Competitive Landscape
Competitive Landscape Summary
Table: Key Players - Greece Oil And Gas Sector
Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Profile
Hellenic Petroleum
Table: Major Downstream Assets in Greece
Table: Major Upstream Assets in Greece
Table: Key Financial Data, EURmn
Energean Oil & Gas
Table: Major Upstream Assets
Regional Overview
North America And Western Europe Regional Overview
Table: North America - Key Regional Indicators, 2013-2024
Table: Western Europe - Key Regional Indicators, 2013-2024
Glossary
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Source
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Weighting

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