Greece Freight Transport Report 2016
The implementation of a third bailout agreement between Greece and the troika of international lenders (theIMF, EU Commission, and ECB) has eased the immediate pressures on the Greek economy and its keysectors. Greece's current account will remain firmly in surplus over the short term, reducing the potential forfunding strains to emerge in the financial account. This will mainly reflect capital controls restrictingimports. The surplus is forecast to narrow gradually as capital controls are eventually lifted and as modesteconomic recovery gains traction. Nevertheless, the country's longer-term economic outlook remains poor,and the result of the September election is set to solidify this view.
Export growth will be one of the key drivers of a recovery in the Greek economy. We believe there will bemoderate growth in trade over the medium term, with export outpacing import growth at 3.0% and 4.0%respectively. Planned privatisation for large parts of the freight sector will facilitate trade and consequentlythe Greek economy. We remain that net exports will be dependent on the mixed eurozone outlook, and aslight recovery in imports and weak demand from key eurozone trading partners will slow the pace of traderebalancing.
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