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Greece Country Risk Report Q3 2018

Greece Country Risk Report Q3 2018

With Greece's creditors still to agree on significant debt relief, and with the left-wing Syriza government attempting to reduce the fiscal deficit via tax hikes instead of expenditure cuts, Greece's economy will remain on a very low growth trajectory and will be vulnerable to external market shocks over the coming years.

This view is underpinned by severe structural issues facing the country, namely an unsustainable government debt load, a dire demographic profile, and Greece's scant progress in improving productivity over the past few years.

Although Greece will aim to run a 3.5% of GDP primary budget surplus in the years ahead, the country will remain dependent on bailout funds and debt relief measures from its creditors if it is to make any dent in its massive debt burden of around 180% of GDP.

The ruling Syriza-led coalition will struggle to build support as disil-lusioned voters move to opposition parties.

Greece will run a historically narrow current account deficit for the next few years, reducing previously systemic risks posed to mac-roeconomic stability from its large external imbalances.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Index
Economic Growth Outlook
2018 To Mark High Point In Recovery
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
External Trade And Investment Outlook
Signs Point To Narrowing Current Account Deficit
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
Monetary Policy
ECB Plays Waiting Game
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
Debt Relief To Come With Conditions
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
Currency Forecast
EUR: Near-Term Strength To Give Way Gradually
TABLE: BMI EUROZONE CURRENCY FORECAST
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
The Greek Economy To 2027
Another Lost Decade Ahead
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Index
Domestic Politics
Unpopular Policies To Weigh On Support For Government
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
Developed States
TABLE: LABOUR MARKET RISK INDEX
TABLE: LOGISTICS RISK INDEX
TABLE: CRIME AND SECURITY RISK INDEX
TABLE: TRADE AND INVESTMENT RISK INDEX
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
Key Divergences Emerging In World Economy
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: GREECE – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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